The old adage goes that power abhors a vacuum. In as much as you cant just write off Raila Odinga, his loss in the just concluded 2022 general elections has created a turbulence in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party as to whom is likely to take the mantle.

Well the talks are still at the murmuring stages, but names are being dropped as possible successors of Agwambo the enigma.  Hassan Ali Joho the former Mombasa governor, Suna East MP Junet Mohammed,  Narok senator Ledama Ole Kina, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino among others.

The flamboyant former Mombasa county boss Hassan Joho would have been the natural successor of the Raila Odinga base but as fate would have it, his political light dwindled the day Azimio lost the presidency. Joho could have gained so much politically with a Raila presidency as he could have been a powerful minister, now its just a pipe dream. To maintain political relevance without a political seat and outside government will be a hard sell for Governor 001

Hon Junet Mohamed is another casualty that will go down politically as Mr Odinga hangs his political boots. His closeness to Raila Odinga will come haunt him as he has stepped on many toes within the party ranks and some are even blaming him for the former prime minister’s loss. In Nyanza where he has enjoyed massive support due to his loyalty to Mr Odinga, he has a hard task to survive minus Raila in the political equation.

We are left with Narok senator Ledama Ole Kina and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino. First they are both youthful and hence have time advantage given that President Ruto could serve two terms and thus the nearest realistic chance at the presidency for them is in 2032, they both have a base with Ledama having the Maa community and Babu having the Luo nation, they are both firebrands and can really move masses at the podium. So who is the most likely and why?

The advantage Babu Owino has over Ole Kina is the urbanite vote. Babu just like Raila himself has started his political journey in the big city. City politics has cut throat competition and should one master it well, that’s enough preparation for national politics. In addition, Babu Owino also has a base that Ole Kina could struggle to appeal to, the comrades. Since his time as SONU chairman, Babu fashioned himself as the comrade’s savior especially in raising their grievances such as HELB disbursement. With this, am rooting for Babu Owino as the Prince in waiting. I might be wrong, what do you think?